Scenarios as Models for Knowledge Integration: Ecotourism Futures in Milne Bay, Papua New Guinea

This 7-page report presents an example from participatory research that examines the use of an approach called "scenario planning" within the context of ecotourism in Milne Bay Province, Papua New Guinea. Scenario planning is a structured process of exploring the future. As the authors explain, even if future events can be predicted with reasonable confidence by scientific methods, it is difficult to predict how people will respond, or indeed pre-empt these events. Thus, scenarios, by bringing together participants' knowledge and scientific information in the form of data and model projections, can foster a richer understanding of the future. In addition, they note, it is difficult to predict how different events and people's responses to them will interact across global, national, and local scales. By bringing together information at multiple scales, scenarios help to identify cross-scale processes and consequences that are not be possible by looking at information from one scale alone.

In Milne Bay, ecotourism is being considered as part of a strategy for sustainable development. The researchers used a scenario planning process to elicit views of the future at 2 scales: the first with a group of provincial ecotourism stakeholders - including ecotourism operators, representatives of the Milne Bay Tourism Board, and representatives of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) with an interest in ecotourism - and the second with a local ecotourism operator. In each case, participants were asked to identify the major drivers of change and uncertainties that they believed might influence the future, and to consider what the future might look like in 2040.

In short, the provincial stakeholders identified climate change and technology as the 2 most influential and uncertain driving forces for a sustainable ecotourism industry in Milne Bay Province, alongside global fuel prices, population growth, cultural change, and overharvesting and exploitation of natural resources. The 4 scenarios revealed a number of perceived opportunities as well as threats. According to the researchers, some of these had not necessarily been given much consideration by participants, such as the risks associated with rapid information exchanges, or the potential to develop alternative ecotourism activities despite climate change impacts.

The ecotourism operator stated that the biggest threats to the province were overpopulation and climate change leading to environmental degradation; he considered the biggest threats to his village to be overfishing and the loss of tradition due to mining and tourism. He stated that climate change was the most uncertain change, and acknowledged uncertainty of scientific information compared to what was observed in reality. His future vision implies some trade-offs: aspects of the vision - cruise ships and sea planes - potentially pose further social problems.

The article concludes with reflections on participatory scenario processes, noting that in this case, scenarios helped participants to think about the future in new and different ways, as well as to reveal where views about the future diverge, and where understanding is lacking. Suggestions include the incorporation of an evaluative process to gauge the effectiveness of the scenario process in changing perceptions of the future.